How far back can you be?

September 1, 2022 by Darren LeMay in Analysis with comments

Over the last six MPO World Championships, the eventual winner has always been within three strokes of the lead after round two. All six winners were on the lead card for round three.

If you extend it out to the last 10 winners, only two times has the eventual winner come back from more than a three stroke deficit after round two. In 2014, Paul McBeth was in 8th place and five strokes off the lead after round two, and in 2012 McBeth won his first world title after being six strokes off the pace of the leader.

Aaron Gossage and Tristan Tanner currently share the lead at 20-under. Only five players sit within three strokes. Last year, nine players finished round two within three shots of the lead.

With the majority of the 54 remaining holes being at the Emporia Country Club, where we have already seen nine players shoot double digits under par, the old adage – “there’s a lot of golf left” – is obviously true, and there are still a lot of . That said, history is on the side of these five gentlemen:

• Tristan Tanner (-20)
• Aaron Gossage (-20)
• Calvin Heimburg (-18)
• Paul McBeth (-18)
• Garrett Gurthie (-17)

THAT’S IT! That is the entire list of possible winners if the recent history of the event holds true. Of that list only Paul McBeth has ever even won a Major, let alone his five World titles.

But if we go with the history of the last eight years and say everyone within five strokes is still alive, which feels plausible on these courses, the current top 12 are still alive.

The additional 7 players that fall within those extra two strokes are:

• Eagle McMahon -16
• Ezra Aderhold -16
• Chris Clemons -16
• Gavin Babcock -16
• Ricky Wysocki -16
• Anthony Barela -15
• Ben Callaway -15

Assorted Worlds Facts

• Only four of the last 11 champions were actually leading after round two (Doss 2011, McBeth 2013, Wysocki 2016 & 2017)
• Nine of the last ten champions started round three on the lead card.
• In 2016 (also at Emporia), Ricky Wysocki shot consecutive hot rounds in each of the first two rounds. The only player to do that in the last 20 years. He then did it again in round three! Ricky led after every round that year.

Who’s Out?

The following six players are already out of contention based on historical finishes. They were all amongst the pre-tournament favorites to win this week.

39th place (10 strokes…